航运

的 ‘Big’ 航运 Problem: Large Household Goods Intensify 供应链 Delays

大流行期间,人们买了很多喂鸟器. In fact, one retailer sold out of a year’s worth of bird feeders in just two weeks. Birds did not become more exciting over the last year to prompt such high sales. What changed was people staying at home and a new multi-billion-dollar focus on purchasing household goods to make those homes more comfortable. Bird feeder buys are nothing compared to the increased spend on large items like mattresses and furniture. Now those big purchases have created a big problem for the international supply chain: big delays. 从远洋船只到最后一英里交货, 链条上的每一个环节都面临着加快步伐的压力. 

国际航运延误

在2月份的财报电话会议上, La-Z-Boy的CEO库尔特·达罗带来了一些坏消息. New customer orders would take anywhere from five to nine months for delivery. 的 furniture company is not alone with mattress stores sold out and other home goods retailers out of stock on large items for several weeks to many months. 问题始于亚洲出口市场. 

目前存在近50万个集装箱的短缺. 的se pieces of equipment have become such a hot commodity that the price of using a 40-foot container has increased by 268% year over year. While there are too few containers, demand has increased significantly. 美国月度进口数据.S. 来自中国的投资接近500亿美元 in the fourth quarter of 2020, over $10 billion more than before the pandemic began. 

Making the capacity crunch worse is the size of exported items. 家具销售额增长了20倍.与前一年相比,2021年3月将增加4%. 集装箱进口 of household art, appliances, and mattress supports increased by double digits. Estimates show containers of lawnmowers up by nearly 10 times that of 2019. 这些大, heavy items require more container space and have a greater impact on the overall tonnage a ship can haul. That makes it a fight for companies to get this less desirable freight on board. 家具常常是名副其实的“错失良机”.” 

国内运输的要求

准点率目前是历史最低的34艘.9%. 一旦船到了,就会有更多的延误. In early May, vessels waited an average of eight days for offload at the Port of Los Angeles. 的 ripple effect of the week-long Suez Canal blockage in March continues plaguing ports on both U.S. 海岸正在清理堵塞. 的 timing could not have been worse with manufacturing rapidly increasing while port labor shortages persisted. Even when containers are pulled, there is nowhere for them to go. A lack of trucks, chassis, and limited train capacity have containers sitting even longer.

Bulky cargo changes hands multiple times before reaching the consumer. Less-than-truckload and final mile delivery carriers now are feeling the strain. 的 重型大件市场正在增长 at a rate of 12% annually, impressive compared to 9% growth for parcels. 然而,四大巨头控制了90%的包裹空间. This allows for the creation of dense lanes and economies of scale to drive profits and efficiencies. By comparison, no single company controls more than 7% of the heavy bulky market. That means rate hikes for oversize and over dimension items that take up LTL space. 

This double-digit growth in the heavy bulky market also is forcing LTL to expand its final mile footprint. 的se items require different equipment for more residential deliveries. Making those deliveries versus staying exclusively inside dense freight lanes causes further delays. Pair that with a 30% return rate for all items purchased online, 包括体积庞大的家用电器,比如冰箱, 产能变得更加有限. 

建筑热潮对未来货运的影响

It would be easy to chalk up the current international shipping delays to the residual effects of the pandemic, 但数据表明,这个问题并没有消失. 美国.S. market currently is short about two million homes compared to buyer demand. 建筑商需要 构建1.7 to 2.500万个家庭 在接下来的几年里,只是为了修复这种不平衡. 之后买了一套新房子, people usually invest in home furnishings for the next 24 months. 

家具店销售额上升20.2021年第一季度同比增长4%. 与此同时,Wayfair的收入增长了近50%. 在哈佛大学4月份的收益电话会议上, 首席执行官说, “Even though our undelivered backlog is four times [from this time] last year, our current incoming orders are continuing at the elevated pace we have seen since January.”

Even as the world opens up, people remain focused on staying at home. 期待一件新家具或器具的漫长等待. 的 shipping journey will continue to be a long one in the months—and potentially years—ahead. 

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